Broncos Mailbag: What’s with the modest expectations for Sean Payton’s team?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

Does projecting the Broncos to not be much over 5.5 wins show expertise? They won eight games last year with a sack-prone Russell Wilson and a lot of weaknesses. This year they not only have a much harder-to-sack QB and one who may prove to be among the best rookie QBs. They have a much-improved team. I am not a journalist, but I think the changes Payton has made warrant easily an 11-or-more-win season. We shall see, won’t we? Will a mea culpa be forthcoming if the Broncos exceed six or seven or even eight games?

— Stephen Leonard, Vidalia, Ga.

Hey Stephen, a perfectly fair question. You might be referencing my 6-11 pick in our preseason magazine or more generally the Vegas betting line of 5.5 wins for Denver on the season. And no, it doesn’t necessarily mean expertise. It’s just based on what I’ve seen during training camp and also the schedule. What I’ve said all along — and what doesn’t get communicated in a simple record projection — is that I think this team has more upward mobility than last year’s. And that’s largely because of Nix. If he goes out and plays at a high level from the jump or early in the season, then yeah, they have a great chance to surprise people.

But it’s fair to ask that we see more on that front before assuming it’s going to happen.

More than that, though, the six-win projection is not just about Nix. A year ago Denver was the healthiest team in football. Most roster depth issues they had went mostly without consequence. If that happens again, great. Life in the NFL doesn’t usually work that way. An injury or two on the offensive line or at wide receiver, corner or tight end and the depth gets skimpy in a hurry.

Your “much-improved” claim could end up being right, too. They’re certainly improved personnel-wise on the defensive line, for example. Sean Payton likes this set of receivers better than the one he had last year. But is the safety room improved after losing Justin Simmons? Is getting rid of Jerry Jeudy a guaranteed improvement? Or replacing Josey Jewell with Cody Barton? It’s the same offensive line except Luke Wattenberg at center instead of Lloyd Cushenberry, who got $50 million this spring from Tennessee.

On the quarterback front, you’ll get no argument from me that Nix is a better fit than Russell Wilson was. And Wilson didn’t play at a consistently high-level last year. But he also wasn’t terrible. There’s no one single catch-all metric for quarterbacks, but let’s take a cross-section: EPA per play (according to Sumer Sports): No. 19. Passer rating:  No. 8. QBR: No. 21. TDs: No. 9.

He took far too many sacks, but also only threw eight interceptions and logged 26 touchdown passes. He led an offense that wasn’t bad in most areas but was horrible in the low red zone.

It’s overly optimistic to just assume Nix is going to exceed Wilson’s performance across the board in Year 1. He could do it. It’s not impossible and it would certainly be a compelling story. But that outcome would be anomalous for a rookie taken sixth in his class, even one that’s a really good fit long-term for the situation he landed in.

Best part about all of this: We’re all finally about to find out together over the next 18 weeks.

Of all of the major league sports, is NFL cutdown the lousiest time of the year for its players? And in all honesty, do the Broncos have enough talent to escape the AFC West basement? Better yet, where will they slot in the AFC West?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Yeah, I’m sure there are tough weeks in other sports, too, Ed, but the cutdown in the NFL is brutal. It’s nearly 1,200 players losing their jobs in a very short amount of time. And the nature of the process is that most don’t get more than a quick meeting with the brass and a handshake. Of course, many do end up back on practice squads or get another chance at some point, but regardless, it’s no fun for players and agents and it’s not enjoyable for teams, either. But it’s the way of the league.

Escape the basement? Perhaps. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Denver finish ahead of Las Vegas, though that’s going to likely take ending the eight-game losing streak against the Raiders. The losing streak to Kansas City got all the attention, but it’s incredible Denver has not beaten the Raiders since they moved to Vegas.

Put me down for another tie with Vegas this year in the divisional race. Co-dwellers.

Hi Parker, with the dust settled on the initial 53-man roster, what is the Broncos’ current cap space for the rest of the season? Is there enough room to sign Pat Surtain II to a contract extension? Thanks.

— Brandon, Rogers, Minn.

Great question, Brandon. Both OvertheCap and Spotrac show the Broncos as being right up against the cap — think $1 million or less in space — as teams transition to the top-51 allocation for space.

That wouldn’t necessarily preclude them from getting an extension done with their star cornerback, though. Surtain’s cap number for this year is $6.67 million, of which $3.2 million is prorated bonus accounting and the rest is his salary and roster bonus. Denver might have to convert some other guaranteed money on its 2024 roster to bonus, but with a little bit of wiggle room could give Surtain a massive extension without his cap number this year rising too much from where it currently is.

Denver did a similar thing with Quinn Meinerz, who had his base salary for 2024 reduced to the minimum when he signed a four-year extension. That wasn’t a problem, naturally, because he’s getting paid a massive signing bonus as part of the new contract.

So it’s still possible to get a deal done, but Denver doesn’t have a ton of extra room to operate.

Who’s the most surprising name to make the team? For my money, it’s Eyioma Uwazurike, mostly in that I did not expect him to be reinstated by the league.

— Mike, Denver

Yeah, Mike, fair point there. Once he got reinstated and showed even a hint of being back to form, though, he became necessary for Denver to protect on its 53-man roster. There just aren’t many guys Uwazurike’s size who can move.

As for most surprising, there were a couple of twists and turns down the stretch. Payton didn’t plan on losing Mike Burton and Lil’Jordan Humphrey even though they were released and said he asked for their trust in starting them on the practice squad. Damarri Mathis went on injured reserve as a result of the ankle injury he sustained in the final preseason game. So on and so forth.

For most surprising guy who made it, maybe Blake Watson. It’s nothing against him, either. He just was hurt for some of the offseason program and got off to a slow start in camp. That’s not a good recipe for making the team. But he came on strong even just in the final week and the Broncos clearly weren’t willing to risk trying to get him through waivers. Good on him. I also went into the final stretch of camp figuring Frank Crum might be a developmental player on the practice squad, but scarcity probably played a role there, too. Teams are scouring for tackles who can bend and move. He’s not a finished product by any means, but I thought they might try to sneak him through and protect Trey Jacobs. Instead, they protected Crum and lost Jacobs on waivers to New England. So maybe they were destined to lose one or the other. That’s life with young tackles sometimes.

I have always maintained that games are won and lost in the trenches. The Broncos defensive line has clearly upgraded. In my estimation, the offensive line is still suspect, and very vulnerable should they experience injuries. The center spot is not strong; losing Lloyd Cushenberry hurt. Alex Forsyth (I know he is a backup) is simply not strong/powerful enough to hold up to the big D tackles. Mike McGlinchey is not as solid as hoped for when he signed as a free agent. Should any of these O-linemen get dinged, their backups represent a certain decline and vulnerability. Bo Nix absolutely needs solid O-line play to be successful. The play and health of this group will determine the success of this team.

— Kenny, Lake Oswego, Ore.

No argument here, Kenny. We’ll see how Luke Wattenberg fares at center early in the season. The Broncos knew McGlinchey was a better run blocker than pass protector when they gave him a five-year, $87.5 million deal last spring, but they could certainly use better protection this fall. Same goes for left guard Ben Powers.

The Broncos have four highly-paid guys up front. They have to drive the train. It’s really that simple.

Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.

Link to original article