Broncos analysis: Sean Payton, George Paton have many variables to navigate in trying to identify QB of the future
Denver Post
INDIANAPOLIS — Michael Penix Jr. walked into the Denver Broncos’ suite at Lucas Oil Stadium and was greeted with some of his worst work as a college quarterback.
The University of Washington star and 2024 NFL draft hopeful, though, took it in stride.
Not that every other interview is all sunshine and rainbows, but Penix called his meeting with the Broncos “different.”
In the NFL, he’ll be asked to adjust on the fly constantly. Play in and play out. Multiple times in just a few seconds. If at first you don’t anticipate, you’d sure as heck better react quickly.
“They were tough. They put up a lot of bad plays,” Penix said of his 18 minutes with head coach Sean Payton and the rest of the Broncos’ contingent. “But it’s good because at the next level it’s hard. It’s hard to win. I understand that.
“In ways, he was probably trying to see how I reacted to those bad plays and if I could take accountability and stuff like that.”
Indeed, the Broncos and every other NFL team are trying to learn everything they can about the prospects at the combine, quarterbacks or otherwise.
The urgency, however, ratchets up when it comes to the most important position in the game. Especially when a team doesn’t have a long-term answer at quarterback. When a team is looking for that foundational player. The face of the franchise.
The Broncos are squarely in that group as they head toward separation from Russell Wilson.
Denver thought in March 2022 that it had a long-term solution in Wilson, but instead they are back here at the combine once more, looking for the answer to a question that has remained elusive since Peyton Manning retired.
So, can they answer it this year? And can they do it from the No. 12 pick? The past week has been about moving toward solidifying the answers to those questions, though the work’s not done yet.
“The interactions in the meetings are important,” Payton said Tuesday. “… For a lot of us — the scouts maybe not so much — but for a lot of us it’s the first time we’re getting introduced to a prospect and so not just a quarterback but the other positions.
“And I think that first impression is important.”
Evaluation in progress
If the first impression is important, the finished evaluation is ultimately most critical.
On a quarterback, the final report can literally mean the difference between staying stuck in purgatory (or worse) and being set for perhaps a decade-plus.
Despite all the resources and practice in NFL history, however, teams still don’t have quarterback evaluations down to a science.
Some attributes are easier to peg than others. The great mystery is and always has been how a player processes information and how quickly he does it.
“We shouldn’t miss on accuracy because we get to see it,” Payton said. “We shouldn’t miss on stature because we get to feel it and look at it and measure it. We shouldn’t miss on athleticism. All of those traits should be easier to be correct on. But the more difficult ones … Leadership we shouldn’t miss on. We should feel that and be able to research that.
“But it’s that other element and it’s really the difference of just that (finger snap). For some guys it’s two thumb ticks and for others it’s one. And you hope it’s one.”
Measurables are closer to black and white, though there are always exceptions. Payton suggested 6-foot-2 as a prototype height for a quarterback, though he went 15 years in New Orleans with Drew Brees and this past year with Russell Wilson, each far shorter than that.
There’s the medical information teams gather at the combine, which will be particularly important for Penix. He had season-ending injuries four straight years (two shoulder injuries, two knee injuries) before playing 28 straight games for UW the past two seasons.
There’s comparisons between systems — Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy threw the ball 332 times in 15 games last fall compared to 555 in 15 for Penix or 425 in 12 games for North Carolina’s Drake Maye — a wide range in terms of experience (61 starts for Oregon’s Bo Nix, 28 for McCarthy), and differing skill sets overall.
Quarterbacks of all shapes, sizes and varieties can win in the NFL. But only if they process information well, orchestrate efficiently and learn fast.
“One thing that’s hard to measure is their ability to multitask and process and make decisions,” Payton said. “It’s one thing — like, you can visit with someone and they can be intelligent, but how quickly can they deliver the information and how quickly can they get through the progression? Are they accurate?
“There’s some fundamental things that we have to see that are present and so sometimes it’s not as difficult as we make it out to be. And sometimes it’s very difficult.”
This isn’t just a Broncos conversation, either. It’s considered the most difficult piece of the puzzle to solve across the league.
“I mean, it’s darn near impossible (to evaluate),” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said on the eve of the combine. “You do your best to try and figure it out and you try and watch guys and you try and see and follow their eyes and how they’re getting from one to two to three and how quickly they’re doing that. Without knowing how they’re coached and what the scheme calls for them to do, it still makes it a little bit difficult.”
The early six-pack
Two names popped into Jeremiah’s mind when he considered Payton’s preferences.
“McCarthy and Nix would be the two that make a lot of sense if they were going to stick and pick one there,” he said. “I think for Sean Payton … being obsessed with processing, I think both those guys do that really, really well. I think that’s a strength for them.
“… I think those guys operate efficiently, and I think they’re both very accurate and protect the football, which seem to be pretty core things there for Sean Payton.”
USC’s Caleb Williams is the prohibitive favorite to go No. 1 overall to Chicago. Penix is talented and will be tantalizing if the medicals check out. Maye is big, strong and mobile.
It’s a safe bet Payton and the Broncos will have reliable, detailed information on LSU’s Jayden Daniels, considering defensive line coach Jamar Cain and vice president of player health and performance Beau Lowery were both on the Tigers’ staff in 2022 when Daniels first arrived as a transfer. Cain was also on Arizona State’s staff when Daniels first got there from high school.
Daniels told reporters Friday that, being in Baton Rouge for two years, he heard a lot about the longtime Saints head coach, too, and that made his meeting with the Broncos all the more interesting.
“Sean Payton, what he did in New Orleans, I was down the road, so, you know, a lot of people still talk about those days,” he said. “To be able to see the offensive mind that he is, the guru, and be able to sit in there and just talk football with everybody (was positive).”
There are options beyond the top set, too, like South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler — it’s not impossible he plays his way closer to the back end of the top six — and Tulane’s Michael Pratt. Florida State’s Jordan Travis will make an interesting late-round flier for somebody even if the gruesome leg injury he sustained late in the Seminoles’ terrific season means he’s in for a redshirt year.
But to Jeremiah, the strength is the top six, and each could push toward first-round consideration.
“I think they have starting potential, so I think there’s — if you have a guy and you think he is the 28th player on your board, 27th player on your board and you are picking 12 or 14, and you need a quarterback, it’s very easy to talk yourself into that,” he said.
Who’s there?
Falling in love with a quarterback only does you good if you actually get a chance to select him.
Williams, Daniels and Maye are likely coming off the board fast — perhaps as the top three picks.
There’s a recent template for trading up from No. 12 to No. 3. San Francisco did it in 2021 to select Trey Lance and gave up three first-round picks (No. 12, 2022 and 2023) plus a 2022 third-rounder.
That’s a steep price, but if Payton and Denver have conviction that the reward is a franchise-altering player, it can’t be ruled out.
If Payton makes a trade in a draft, history says most of the time he’s moving up. Paton, on the other hand, has more regularly traded back.
Paton, on brand, noted during his time at the podium Tuesday that it will be easier for the Broncos to move back from No. 12 rather than move up and that selecting quarterbacks is tricky business.
“If you’re going to draft one, that’s obviously very difficult,” he said. “And so, we’re going to put a lot of time into it, like we do every position, but the quarterback position is just that much (more).
“There’s more mistakes, it seems like, at quarterback, especially in the first round.”
The Broncos haven’t taken a quarterback at No. 12 or earlier since Jay Cutler (No. 11) in 2006. A Payton team has never selected one before the third round, a byproduct of spending most of your years with a Hall of Famer under center.
Much of the next several weeks will be about whether Denver sees the top trio similarly to the consensus opinions and whether another guy rises up to the top 10. Some think McCarthy already has. There are plenty of teams that need quarterbacks, and any of them could feel the itch to move up to make sure they get the one they want.
One intriguing option
The only categorical about the Broncos’ position currently is that they need a quarterback.
Beyond that, they could go up or down. They could view the options differently than other teams. They could make a surprise splash in free agency between now and the draft. They could see a first-round run on quarterbacks so strong it changes the equation.
There are so many variables.
Even still, McCarthy is interesting in that he could be available at or near No. 12, he’s young (just turned 21), and he gets talked about as a Payton type.
“He has a really, really quick mind. He has a quick release,” Jeremiah said. “Just everything he does is real smooth. I wrote in my notes that he never gets bored with completions. Some other guys in his class get in trouble big-play hunting. If you are going to get him check-downs or completions, he is just going to — he is never going to get bored taking those.
“He can rev it up and drive the ball in the seams. He can extend plays, keep his eyes up.”
McCarthy met with the Broncos on Tuesday night for his formal interview and said Friday that he thought he hit it off with Payton, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and quarterbacks coach Davis Webb.
“It was awesome. Coach Payton’s energy, Coach Webb, Coach Lombardi,” McCarthy said. “It was just really great to be in that room with them and go through tape. It was honestly a really fun time. It was a blessing to just pick their brains a little bit and have them just shoot me questions left and right.
“I really enjoyed it.”
This is the beginning of the get-to-know-you process. The Broncos will be at pro days for McCarthy and the others. They’ll host some on visits and attend private workouts and essentially spare no expense in trying to gather as much information as possible.
Then, it’s still no guarantee. This is where the Broncos are and the challenge they face.
“You just want to get around them as much as you can,” Paton said. “I was fortunate to see a lot of these quarterbacks during the fall and that’s one step of the process. And then you have the all-star games and then you have the combine, and then you have pro days, and maybe private workouts, so, as much as you can get around them and see what makes them tick. … Sean talked about leadership. What’s the day-to-day like? What do their teammates feel about them? You can evaluate the arm strength, the accuracy, the athleticism. Being able to process is a little more difficult.
“But I think the more you can get around them, the better decisions you’ll make.”
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