Keeler: Not so fast, Auston Matthews. Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon is going to make NHL’s Hart Trophy race a photo finish
If Cale Makar is the hammer, Nathan MacKinnon is the chisel. The sword that carves NHL defenses open. The blade that scares the living snot out of opposing coaching staffs. A foil that cuts the best-laid plans into tiny ribbons in one sweeping moment.
He’s a serial killer on skates. Blue-liners respect Mikko Rantanen. They fear Nasty Nate.
So humor us here, Canada. Won’t take a moment. Sure, Auston Matthews is hotter than a Taylor Swift drop right now, we’ll grant you. But before you start engraving the Toronto center’s name on the 2023-24 Hart Trophy, pray ask yourselves the following two questions:
1. What would these Maple Leafs look like without Matthews?
2. What would these Avalanche look like without MacKinnon?
Because I’ll tell you the answer to the second one. They’d look like a No. 7 seed in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. A one-line wonder. An easy postseason out.
If you don’t believe what you saw with your own two eyes when the Leafs visited Ball Arena on Saturday night, believe the numbers. The Avalanche going into the weekend had totaled 73 goals on forward lines that had played together for at least 45 minutes this season. MacKinnon’s lines accounted for 45 of those goals — 62%. MacK’s lines were a plus-10 on goal difference, while the other primary lines without him netted a plus-7.
If we apply the same stick to Toronto, things get interesting. Yes, the Leafs’ lines with Matthews and at least 45 minutes of ice time were a plus-13 in goal difference, compared to plus-four without him. But those lines also accounted for 73 goals. Yet the lines with Matthews on the ice posted 32, while the lines without him managed 41 goals — 56%.
Now this sounds like a lovely window with which to point out the Avs’ depth issues, especially with Valeri Nichushkin and Gabe Landeskog in limbo and Ryan Johansen being Ryan Johansen. But that’s another rabbit hole for another day.
And yet every time the Avs have put more on MacKinnon’s plate, the man’s eaten it up. With less help and less support than Matthews has received north of the border.
No. 29, like his Nuggets compatriot Nikola Jokic, is omniscient, three chess moves ahead. A skating savant who sees what others don’t. Until it’s too late.
MacK The Knife drew first blood Saturday, just 2:16 into the early evening affair, when Colorado’s all-everything center camped out in the left face-off circle and spotted power-play linemate Arrturi Lehkonen creeping in the right corner of the crease.
No. 29 slid the puck, like one of The Joker’s no-look passes, under the stick of Jake McCabe. The Leafs defender turned around, the way Wade Davis used to at Coors Field after one of his offerings had been launched like an SpaceX rocket, just in time to see Lehkonen light the lamp.
The eyes had it again nine minutes later. With the Avs up 1-0, MacKinnon turned on the after-burners from one blue line to the other. The Avs’ engine zipped merrily along the right boards untouched, blowing by no fewer than three Leafs and leaving Morgan Reilly so flummoxed that the defender fell face-forward onto the ice in the Toronto zone, tossing his body and stick helplessly while he ate the icy shavings of the league’s best player.
While Reilly picked himself up, MacKinnon curled around the right face-off circle, sensed the help, and launched another no-look laser to a trailing Andrew Cogliano between the dots. Cogs blasted the biscuit past big Ilya Samsonov to extend the hosts’ cushion to 2-0.
Head-to-head, MacKinnon had put up two points on one shot at the start of the third period. Matthews had zero on four attempts.
So yeah, Hockey Night in Colorado lived up to its billing. Even if the Hart showdown didn’t.
Matthews entered the night leading the circuit in goals (52) and ranked third in shots fired (238). Mighty MacK headed into Saturday second in the league in points (93), second in shots (280) and tied for second in assists (59).
Where would they be without him? As Saturday night reminded us again, not chasing home ice in the Western Conference, that’s for darned sure.
Peter Forsberg was the last Avs player to take home the Hart, back in 2003. That’s two decades too long. And given a full head of steam, MacKinnon hasn’t lost a race on the ice yet.
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