Renck vs. Keeler: Can we trust preseason and believe Broncos will deliver their best offense since 2014?

Troy Renck: For the past three Sundays the Broncos were unrecognizable. On-time, on-target touchdown passes at the goal line from Bo Nix. Darts over the middle to Courtland Sutton. A Zach Wilson flick-of-wrist rainbow to Brandon Johnson. Audric Estime trucking defenders at the goal line. Bad and boring offense has been inextricably linked to the Broncos for eight seasons, we forgot what fun and functional looked like. The Broncos averaged 33 points in the preseason. Sean, is it time to believe Denver’s offense can eclipse 22 points per game for the first time since 2014?

Sean Keeler: Man, I want to believe. So, so, so much. But then I remember the competition. I mean, you can only torch who’s in front of you, but ask me when they’re not facing a preseason Week 1 defense (Colts); a mess of backups (Packers); or the Cardinals on a “Bubble Weekend.” In his only two seasons as a head coach without Drew Brees at QB, coach Sean Payton’s offenses averaged 360.5 points over a seasons, or 21.2 points per game. So I’m still standing on 21. And change.

Renck: Let’s be clear: I didn’t update my Broncos prediction from 6-11 to 11-6 after three exhibition games. But it is clear Denver is in a much better place offensively than this time a year ago. Payton remains in sync with Nix, and is showing elasticity in calling plays to the rookie’s strengths. The Broncos also feature a more explosive Javonte Williams and a goal-line hammer with Estime. The Broncos averaging 23 points per game feels like a fair expectation, no longer fever-dream delusion.

Keeler: I put down 7-10 weeks ago, and I’m sticking with it. But that was a pretty good month. Payton got almost everything he wanted: Nix looked sharp, and justified, as a rookie QB1. Players got into the habit of winning, and, more importantly, into the habit of making winning an expectation instead of a fleeting hope. I still want to see Nix against a regular-season defense with regular-season personnel at regular-season speed before I hop on the bandwagon. But save me a seat, would ya? Just in case.

Renck: History is hard to forget, especially when ugly. The Broncos have not had a 1,000-yard rusher since Phillip Lindsay in 2019. That was also the last time a receiver eclipsed the century mark with Sutton (1,112). I am not sure Williams tops 1,000 because Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin will eat into his carries as the season progresses. But Sutton reaching 1,000 is not only possible but necessary. Nix has microwaved his chemistry with Sutton in the first two preseason games. It is easy to see this connection working if Payton continues to lean on roll-outs and bootlegs with Sutton stationed in the middle of the field. Exploiting this mismatch, set up by an improved running game, makes me believe the Broncos will have their best offense since a healthy Peyton Manning steered things in 2014.

Keeler: Since 1994, only one other Broncos team before this one scored at least 26 points in every preseason game — the 2000 squad, which featured Brian Griese and Gus Frerotte at the controls. Mind you, those guys had Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson and Howard Griffith in the backfield and Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey to play pitch-and-catch, accounting for more than 1,300 receiving yards and nine touchdowns each. Talk about weapons. If Nix gets a 2000-Smith-sort-of stat line (100 catches, 1,701 scrimmage yards) from Sutton, they’ll probably both be punching tickets to the Pro Bowl. And the Broncos might be knocking on the door of the AFC playoffs a year sooner than anybody outside the Front Range could’ve ever imagined.

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