DENVER (KDVR) — With just under a week before Election Day, the findings from one last FOX31/Emerson College poll have been released for Colorado's 8th Congressional District.
The new poll shows some changes heading into Election Day, compared to the poll conducted at the beginning of October. The incumbent is now leading in one of Colorado's tightest congressional races.
"I think it's still a margin of error race, very close. You can do this poll five or 10 times and get different outcomes," said FOX31 Political Analyst and Republican Strategist Michael Fields.
"I'm not surprised by the poll results, by the way," said Fox31 Political Analyst and Democratic Strategist Andy Boian. "I'm surprised that Gabe Evans has chosen to go completely negative in this race, which I think has cost him some points."
FOX31's political analysts weighed in with different takes on the race for Colorado's 8th Congressional District. The new FOX31/Emerson College poll shows Democratic incumbent Yadira Caraveo leading among likely voters by nearly two points over her Republican challenger Gabe Evans. A poll conducted earlier this month had Evans with a slight lead at 44.2% and Caraveo right behind him at 44%.
"Looking at the numbers, things could go either way," said Fields. "These are ones that a few more people are decided in the presidential race than the Evans-Caraveo race but the split is almost the same. So I think you're going to see those people split too. This is going to be a race that is within one or two percent on election night. We might not know for a while."
"When you're running against an incumbent, you have to give a solid reason why that person is not doing the job they should and why you would be better at it. And saying you're a combat veteran, with all due respect to Gabe Evans, thank you for your service, and he was a police officer for 10 years, again thank you for your service. That's not enough to convince voters to say this why you would be better in Congress," Boian said.
Voters polled also slightly favored Vice President Kamala Harris. Around 49% said they would vote for her over former President Donald Trump, who polled at 48%. With national eyes on the 8th District to help determine the control of Congress, FOX31's analysts said CD8 is not the only race to watch.
"If Republicans want to win Congress, they need to keep seats like CD3. They want to pick up a CD8 but they have to win a CD3 to do that," said Fields.
"Reflecting on this retroactively next week after the race is over, I think Republicans are going to regret not spending more money on Jeff Hurd in CD3," said Boian.
Colorado's District 3 is the district that Rep. Lauren Boebert switched out of to try to keep her seat in Congress. The race was decided by around 550 votes in 2022 while CD8 was decided by around 1,600 votes that year. Both candidates in this year's CD8 race responded to the latest poll Wednesday.
Both candidates in Colorado's 8th District provided statements regarding the poll results.
"Polls go up and down, but the trend is clear: Coloradans are tired of Yadira Caraveo's extreme, far-left, open-border and defund the police policies, which have created a crime wave and a flood of fentanyl into Colorado. Voters are excited to put Gabe Evans' experience and know-how as a retired cop, U.S. Army veteran, and Hispanic family man to work to secure the southern border, end the Colorado crime wave, lower the cost of living, and stop the flood of poisonous fentanyl into the U.S."
Gabe Evans, Republican candidate for Colorado's 8th Congressional District.
“It's clear that Congresswoman Caraveo’s message of being the 8th most bipartisan freshman Member of Congress and her work to find common ground is resonating with a diverse coalition of Democratic, Republican, and unaffiliated voters. With under a week left until Election Day, Congresswoman Caraveo understands that there is more work to be done to get the message out to voters and looks forward to working to earn each and every vote to send her back to Washington."
Mary Alice Blackstock, Campaign Manager for Caraveo for Congress
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