Broncos Mailbag: What are the chances of a Russell Wilson-Sean Payton reunion in 2024?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

I can understand Sean Payton’s frustration when his play calls get a receiver (like Jerry Jeudy) wide-open and Russell Wilson doesn’t see him. But might it make the most sense to have the Broncos bite the bullet, keep Wilson as their QB since they have to pay him anyway, and concentrate on making the team better in all other areas? Wilson was serviceable, after all, and additional coaching and refinements could make him more effective.

— Fred Waiss, Prairie du Chien, Wis.

Hey Fred, thanks for writing in and getting us going. You’re not wrong on the last sentence, but the hang-up is the “pay him anyway” part. The Broncos are no doubt going to pay Wilson a lot of money (and account for a lot of it on their salary cap), but the issue has always been the $37 million that becomes guaranteed on March 17 for 2025. That money doesn’t count against Denver’s salary cap obligations for Wilson today. It will four weeks from now if he’s still on the roster.

The options at present are:

1. Wilson counts $85 million between 2024 and 2025 to not play for Denver.

2. Wilson counts $122 million between 2024-26 to play 2024 for Denver.

That’s why these coming weeks are most likely Wilson’s last ones as a member of the Broncos. Never say never, but Wilson’s made it clear that, at least as of the end of the season, he was not willing to move the guarantee date on his contract. If he’s going to re-work his deal, it’s probably only to facilitate a trade. But teams that might consider a trade know he’s likely to be cut soon enough, too.

Would it make sense just practically speaking to have Wilson as a bridge to a young quarterback? Yes. But the reality of the contract situation — and the next question below — continues to add up to the most likely outcome being a release on or before March 17.

Sean Payton strikes me as Bill Belichick 2.0 in dealing with questions from the media. Wordier but lacking in real content. What do you believe is his real relationship with Russell Wilson, not personally but with regard to his intent to keep or play him ever again? Russ appears to be planning on lowering his altitude in 2024.

— A Referee, Greeley

Hey Ref, thanks for the question and hope the weeks without football on TV aren’t too rough on you.

Here’s the sort of ironic part about Payton’s role in this: He’s been adamant the whole time that benching Wilson was a football move. Not a don’t-risk-the-$37-million-guarantee-date move. And while it begs belief that he would have no idea and no care in the world about the ramifications of that date, if you take him at his word about the football move and that he doesn’t care about players’ contract details, then why would Wilson be back in 2024?

Payton’s never said “Russ isn’t my type of quarterback,” but every time he talks about his type of quarterback, he talks about stuff other guys do well. Just one example: At the Super Bowl, his examples about fast processors were Drew Brees (duh) and Patrick Mahomes.

Clearly he got frustrated with Denver’s offensive performance late in the season and it’s also clear he felt at least part of the low-red zone struggle and overall inconsistency fell on Wilson.

End of the day, actions speak louder than words, right? The Broncos tried to approach Wilson midseason about a contract restructure because they weren’t comfortable with the idea of his 2025 money becoming guaranteed if he got hurt. Then later in the season, Payton benched him for the final two games.

Now, Wilson and Ciara are taking showings and offers on their Cherry Hills home.

Not much in there that points to a likely reunion.

Want to get your thoughts on the Broncos trading back from 12 to the 20s to get Bo Nix? I think he’s the most NFL-ready QB and would fit great in Coach Payton’s system. I’ve done several mock drafts online and think that the Broncos could get several 2024 and ’25 draft picks by making two or three trades back in the draft (from 12 to 15 or 16, then from 15 or 16 to 21 or 22) and still get a first-round quarterback (either Nix or J.J. McCarthy). What say you?

— James, Aliso Viejo, Calif.

Parker, Really nice to see how you have settled into your role at The Post over time. Would appreciate your comments on the route you think the Broncos should take at the draft. With a lack of draft capital, especially that second-rounder, I can’t see any way selecting one guy at No. 12 makes sense. Trading down at least once will garner you a solid player later in round one with the ability to nab either Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix or J.J. McCarthy at the top half of the second round at the very least. Cheers!

— Allan, Vancouver

Let’s take James and Allan’s questions together and talk draft and trading back. Maybe it’s better to frame the decision-making process this way: The best arguments for staying at No. 12 (or moving up a couple of spots) are two scenarios. One is that a quarterback you really, truly feel good about is there for the taking. The other is if an early run on quarterbacks (let’s say four in the top 7-8 picks) pushes elite talent (and thus outsized value) down to you. Either is possible.

But let’s say for the sake of argument that you don’t love J.J. McCarthy or the second tier of quarterbacks and that you have at least somewhat similar grades on a batch of players who are available at No. 12. That’s a trade back all the way, though it’ll take a dance partner to do so. Denver has enough other needs and has been lacking in high-end draft picks for long enough that this could well end up being a prudent move.

The way NFL folks talk about McCarthy, he may not be an option if you trade back. Maybe Nix or Penix solidifies himself as a first-rounder, but I’m not sure about that for either at this stage.

Just for kicks, here are the QBs taken between No. 12 and the end of the second round over the past eight drafts.

2016: Paxton Lynch (26), Christian Hackenberg (51)

2017: Deshaun Watson (12), DeShone Kizer (52)

2018: Lamar Jackson (32)

2019: Dwayne Haskins (15), Drew Lock (42)

2020: Jordan Love (26), Jalen Hurts (53)

2021: Mac Jones (15), Kyle Trask (64)

2022: Kenny Pickett (20)

2023: Will Levis (33)

Hey Parker, how much slicing and dicing do you anticipate happening with this Broncos roster? Will a machete or another tool be used?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Hey Ed, great question. The Broncos could end up using a few different tools this offseason. Could be a machete. Could be a scalpel. Maybe they bring out the blowtorch, though that seems less likely. They’re also going to need a compass to navigate around the Wilson financial situation, however they decide to approach that.

Some teams are so far over the cap that they have to restructure, restructure, restructure all the way down the list. A year-after-year game of kick the can. The more you play it, the more you have to play it. New Orleans has been the preeminent example of this in recent years, but certainly not the only one.

Denver has the opportunity to avoid that fate, still. In fact, the Broncos can make relatively straightforward moves to get into cap compliance at the start of the league year, sign a modest free agent class and start to move their books toward being younger and more affordable. They can do all that without blowing up their roster, too, or setting it on a course for future cap hell. But it will take discipline.

It also makes the Broncos’ exact approach over the coming weeks a little more difficult to predict. Basically, they’re likely to do something with most of the following contracts: WR Tim Patrick, WR Courtland Sutton, LT Garett Bolles, DL D.J. Jones and S Justin Simmons. They could also make a move with WR Jerry Jeudy. Those six account for more than $97 million in cap space right now for 2024 and only Jeudy’s money is guaranteed. Denver can also create cap space relatively easily by restructuring with DL Zach Allen, LG Ben Powers or RT Mike McGlinchey. On those, ideally you want to start with the players you feel best about keeping for multiple seasons since you’re only moving cap charges into the future.

As you can see, there are multiple routes with most of these players. Simmons could bring back valuable capital in a trade but he should also be an extension candidate. Patrick could be back on a re-worked deal or could be cut. Sutton could end up traded, extended or mostly untouched this offseason contract-wise. Bolles is in a similar boat, though, given his age, trade or hold might be the two most likely options.

All of that is a long way of saying there are several important decisions to make and likely a variety of tools to be used.

So NFL.com ranked the Broncos’ 2023 draft class as the worst one in the league last year. Do you agree with that, even with Marvin Mims Jr.? I know we only had five picks. I’m still holding out faith that Drew Sanders and Riley Moss will improve in the coming years.

— Mark, Arvada

Hey Mark, thanks for writing in.

I’m not sure it matters whether they were last in rookie production or just in the bottom portion of the league. They got some nice contributions — obviously, Mims is already one of the best return men in the game and Moss turned into a good special teams player — but they were inarguably short on game-in, game-out production on offense and defense.

This shouldn’t be that big of a surprise, considering the Broncos had among the least 2023 draft capital. You just are not going to find a ton of instant impact guys when your first pick arrives in the 60s (for a second straight season, too).

Of the top four teams on NFL.com’s list, Houston and Pittsburgh took three players each before Denver’s first pick and Detroit took four. The Lions’ quartet in the first 45 picks — RB Jahmyr Gibbs, ILB Jack Campbell, TE Sam LaPorta and nickel Brian Branch — turned into four impact players.

Most of the time, when you’re talking about rounds three and on, you’re expecting some kind of need for development before making an impact. For better or worse, Payton was not going to be rushed into throwing Sanders and Moss onto the field.

If they each make a Nik Bonitto-like jump in production from Year 1 to Year 2, the Broncos will be happy. If Mims becomes a No. 2 receiver in addition to his return-game work, the Broncos will be happy.

But there’s also no doubt they need more impact players from the draft this spring.

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