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Sean Keeler: Welcome to one of the best times on the sporting calendar, my friend. NFL draft subterfuge. Final Four. The Masters. Opening Day. (OK, the less said about the Rockies’ Opening Day, the better.) Hope springs eternal! And speaking of hope, we’ve got the regular season winding down for the best two teams in town, the Nuggets and Avs. Which means two things: One, that the playoffs are ’round the bend; and two, that the best two players in town, Nikola Jokic and Nathan MacKinnon, get to make their closing arguments toward the NBA and NHL MVP awards, respectively. Gotta tell ya: I could see them both winning it this year, giving Denver its first-ever winter sweep of top league honors. But they’ve got some stars nipping at their heels — er, skates, in MacKinnon’s case — who figure to make it a dogfight down the stretch. But if you had to handicap one guy, Joker or Mighty MacK, as having better odds to get over the line, who ya taking? And why?
Troy Renck: The easy answer is Jokic. The reality is he would be poised to win his fourth straight MVP, if Troell Embiid hadn’t offered the media a vintage bottle of fine whine last spring. Embiid is outstanding — when he plays, which is never in Denver. One of the best byproducts of the Nuggets winning the title is that voters no longer have to feel guilty viewing Jokic as an all-time great. He’s not Steve Nash. He has a ring. He plays his best when it matters most. And with his passes, it’s clear he had Lasik surgery on the eyes in the back of his head when he was a child.
Keeler: Vegas likes the Joker by a landslide, and so do I. As of Monday morning, DraftKings.com had listed Jokic as a -700 favorite, which means a $100 wager would bring you back a whopping profit of $14.28. The sportsbook pegged MacKinnon at -300, which would net a $33 profit, potentially. Once Joel Embiid’s knee injury made him ineligible — new criteria mandates at least 65 appearances of 20 minutes or more over an 82-game regular season — to win the award, it’s become a three-horse race between Jokic, Dallas’ Luka Doncic and OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Doncic figures to make it interesting in this month, though, after averaging a crazy triple-double (32.5 points per game, 10.1 rebounds per game, 10.1 assists per game) in March.
Renck: Jokic is a lock. Doncic started his push too late. And Jokic is at least functional defensively. Doncic provides less resistance than a water slide. That said, I want to talk MacKinnon. He will not be Hart-broken this spring. But, it’s going to be greasy. Nikita Kucherov has a tremendous case for carrying the Lightning. But MacKinnon has been slightly better when looking at point streaks, five-on-five work and his inevitability as a fierce leader. He finished second twice (2018, 2020) and third once (2021). In absence of Auston Matthews reaching 70 goals, this hardware belongs to Nate The Great.
Keeler: Joker’s assist numbers went slightly down in March, which probably has as much to do with Jamal Murray’s absence as anything else. But when 27.6 points, 12.2 rebounds and 8.1 dimes per game is considered an “off” month, the world’s gone mad. With MacKinnon, it might well come down to final numbers, too. Since 2014, the Hart Trophy wound up being handed out to the same player who took home the Art Ross Trophy as NHL points leader seven different times. (Three of those times, the guy winning both awards was Edmonton’s Connor McDavid.) At the start of the work week, MacKinnon (127 points) led Kucherov by a point (126) and McDavid by two (125). Although Tampa (89 points) and Edmonton (94 points) have yet to clinch a postseason berth yet, and the Avs (100 points) have already crossed that one off the list.
Renck: I don’t want to hear that MacKinnon will win because it’s his turn. That’s the silly logic that landed Embiid the MVP last season. MacKinnon should win because he’s had the best season for one of the best teams. No politics or favorites necessary. He spent the last several months chasing Wayne Gretzky’s consecutive game home scoring streak. He can overcome a deficit with his stick or a stare. It is past time he skates off with the league’s top honor.
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