Avalanche Journal: What could Mikko Rantanen’s next contract look like?

This could be a very uncertain summer for the Colorado Avalanche, but securing a little long-term certainty might be the best move the club can make.

Mikko Rantanen is not one of Colorado’s nine free agents, but he’s eligible for a new contract starting July 1. Signing him to another long-term deal in July would help the Avs ensure their window as a Stanley Cup contender goes beyond 2024-25 and provide general manager Chris MacFarland with a clearer picture of what can be done this offseason and beyond to supplement a championship-level core.

Rantanen, who will turn 28 in late October, is entering the final season of a six-year contract that he signed in late September 2019. His cap hit for this coming season will be $9.25 million. The next deal will include a raise.

Rantanen is coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 40 goals and 100 points in each. Five players in the NHL have more than Rantanen’s 301 points over the past three years. Four players have more than his 133 goals in that span.

When it comes to the best wings in the NHL, Rantanen is on the shortlist. Artemi Panarin and Nikita Kucherov have more points than him in the past three years. David Pastrnak has 15 more goals and one less point. Matthew Tkachuk has the same number of points, but 25 fewer goals.

Those five names would make a pretty strong list of the best wings. Filip Forsberg, Kirill Kaprizov, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Sam Reinhart are either the back half of Tier 1 or the top guys in Tier 2.

As MacFarland put it shortly after the season ended with a second-round loss to the Dallas Stars, there is plenty of uncertainty for the Avs this summer … but Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Devon Toews and Rantanen are a pretty great place to start when it comes to team building. What would a new contract for Rantanen look like?

There’s not a lot of comparable deals out there. If we narrow the focus to wings who signed a long-term deal at a similar point in their careers — just as they are about to reach unrestricted free agency — it’s a short list.

Seven guys signed for more than what Rantanen costs per season in his current deal, but three of them — including Kucherov — are all on the same contract (8 years, $9.5 million per season).

That leaves four guys, and realistically only two. Here is a look at the seven wings who signed those deals, and how Rantanen stacks up to them in comparison:

(Can’t see chart on mobile? Click here.)

^ Per-game average during the three years before contract began | *In millions of dollars

Reinhart is a UFA this summer, so he could make it eight before Rantanen signs. Marner is in the same boat as Rantanen — one year left on his deal and extension eligible.

Panarin signed his deal five years ago, but he was a UFA and one of the two or three most talented players to reach the open market in the salary cap era. The cap ceiling has gone up since, but not a lot thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pastrnak’s deal is the most obvious comparable. It’s a fascinating comparison: Pastrnak was two years younger when his deal started and has been a slightly better player, so the Avs should ask Rantanen to sign for less, right?

Well, there is a cap increase coming this offseason — the first one of $4 million plus since 2018. And there’s another one projected for the following summer. If Rantanen wanted to wait and test the market, every team is expected to have $8 million to $9 million more in cap space than it did in 2023-24 when Pastrnak’s deal began.

Eight years would take Rantanen through his age-36 season. There will be some risk during the back half of the deal. Jamie Benn has had a couple of not-great years near the end of his eight-year deal, though he was very good two seasons ago and the Stars have developed a new young core to supplement the older guys — something the Avs will need to do in the latter half of this decade.

For now, the focus is on winning another Stanley Cup in the next 2-4 seasons while the Colorado core remains elite. MacKinnon is at $12.6 million per year, so Rantanen’s not likely to get that much.

Even if the Avs gave him $11.75 million per season to make him (at least temporarily) the highest-paid wing in the league, that’s only adding $2.5 million from his current cost. Something at or near Pastrnak’s number is probably more likely.

There has been some online chatter from Avs fans about possibly trading Rantanen. Evan Rawal of Colorado Hockey Now handled the immediate reasons why that makes no sense. This team has no idea what it’s getting from Gabe Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin moving forward, and trading its best wing would leave the group in even greater flux.

The bigger picture is simple: This never works. Teams do not trade world-class players unless they have to, either because of a trade request, refusal to sign long-term, or the club is not a contender and needs to rebuild.

When was the last time an NHL team traded a great player and won the Cup in relatively short order? The answer is Boston, which traded Phil Kessel in 2009 and won two years later. Only one player that came back in the deal (Tyler Seguin, and only because Toronto flopped the following year, giving Boston the No. 2 pick) contributed to the Cup-winning team.

The Bruins proved this point further by trading Seguin and Dougie Hamilton — both became great players and were drafted with picks from the Kessel trade — in later years and have not won a title since. Teams that are a Cup contender or close do not trade core players.

Calgary traded Tkachuk two years ago because he didn’t seem eager to sign long-term. The Flames’ return for Tkachuk was widely praised. They are now in a rebuild/retool mode, while Tkachuk is on the verge of reaching the Cup Final for the second straight season.

Buffalo traded Jack Eichel because the relationship had soured, likely beyond repair. The return was widely cheered. Eichel just won the Cup last season, while the Sabres’ league-long playoff drought marches on.

Ottawa traded Erik Karlsson a year removed from a trip to the conference finals before the 2018-19 season. The Senators haven’t been close since, even with the deal returning multiple young core players.

The Avs traded Matt Duchene, after he wanted out, and two guys from that deal were critical during the Stanley Cup run … five years later.

MacKinnon, Makar and Toews don’t have five years to wait around for another one. Having one of, if not the best, inner-circle cores in the NHL is an incredible advantage. It’s much easier to find supplemental pieces around them. Having them helps attract those players.

The Avs can sign Rantanen in July, and they should do it. It’s going to cost a lot of money and cap space, but it’s also going to ensure the Stanley Cup window stays open in Denver for several more seasons.

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