Broncos (3-3) at Saints (2-4)
When: Thursday, 6:15 p.m. MT
Where: Caesars Superdome
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/Prime Video
Line: Broncos -2.5
Broncos-Saints series: Denver is 9-3 in 12 regular-season games dating back to 1970; the Broncos lost 31-3 in the last meeting, on Nov. 29, 2020, in New Orleans, and have won five of their last six against the Saints.
In the spotlight: Broncos “really impressed” with Saints QB Spencer Rattler during draft process.
In a scenario where Bo Nix wasn’t taken by the Broncos with the 12th overall pick, Spencer Rattler might have been the team’s next option.
During the pre-draft process, head coach Sean Payton said the team did a fair amount of homework on Rattler and was “really impressed” with what the former South Carolina quarterback brought to the table.
When the Broncos face the Saints on Thursday night, they are expecting Rattler, who is making his second career start for New Orleans, to display the traits that made him a potential target for Denver back in April.
“We had him graded higher, and I’m sure the Saints did as well,” Payton said. “He was impressive.”
In Denver’s quest to find a quarterback to replace nine-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson, the organization did its due diligence on most of the prospects in the 2024 class, especially Rattler. Payton mentioned the team did “the whole nine yards” when scouting the former five-star recruit.
The Broncos met with Rattler at the scouting combine, attended his pro day, held a private workout with him in Arizona, and took him to dinner.
Coming out of college, Rattler’s arm strength was unquestionable. He gradually improved each season at South Carolina following a rocky stint at Oklahoma. He threw for 3,026 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2022. In his final year, he recorded a career-high 3,186 yards with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
“We really liked him. … Just kinda has that personality that I think is going to lend itself to being successful,” offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said. “Throws the ball well, athletic, good mind.”
Similar to Nix, Denver thought Rattler was battle-tested. He arrived in Oklahoma as the best quarterback from the 2019 recruiting class and was viewed as a potential first-round pick. But things went sour in Norman, and he was benched for Caleb Williams in 2021 before transferring to South Carolina.
Despite Rattler’s bumpy college career, he managed to improve his draft stock, especially at the Reese’s Senior Bowl when he went 4-for-4 passing for 65 yards and a touchdown. Ultimately, Denver answered its need on the first day of the draft. Rattler ended up being the next quarterback off the board, falling to New Orleans in the fifth round.
“We were surprised at how late he got drafted,” Lombardi said.
In his first season with the Saints, Rattler was meant to serve as Derek Carr’s understudy. But due to an oblique injury for Carr, Rattler has been forced to slide into the starting role.
Rattler’s debut last week had its ups and downs. He completed 11 of 17 passes for 140 yards and a touchdown in the first half. In the opening quarter, Rattler went 5 of 7 for 63, with his first pass of the game a 27-yard completion to tight end Juwan Johnson.
Things took a turn for the worse in the final two quarters, however. He went 11 for 23 with 103 yards and two interceptions as New Orleans fell to Tampa Bay, 51-27. He had the third-lowest passer rating (60.7) among Week 6 starters.
Against Denver’s defense, Rattler will be tested. Even though the Broncos will likely be without star cornerback Pat Surtain II, the Saints are dealing with a handful of injuries on offense, too.
Rattler struggled against pressure in the loss to Tampa Bay. He was 3 for 11 for 27 yards and a 39.6 passer rating under pressure, according to Next Gen Stats. And Denver has been one of the best teams in the league at pressuring QBs.
Rattler has plenty to prove. But the eye test has shown the Broncos coaching staff that he isn’t someone they should take lightly.
“There’s a calmness when he plays,” Payton said. “You see that in the preseason and last week. It’s not too big for him, and he has a live arm.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Similar to Denver’s matchup against the Raiders, New Orleans is not good against the run. The Saints gave up 277 rushing yards in their loss to the Buccaneers last week — the most allowed in a single game this season. Javonte Williams was held under 30 rushing yards for the fourth time this season last week and hasn’t had a rushing attempt surpass 20 yards. Thursday’s matchup could be an opportunity to get back on track. Denver could also see what rookie running back Audric Estime is capable of. Edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass
Nix has averaged 3.1 yards per attempt when under pressure, a full yard fewer than any other qualified quarterback, according to Next Gen Stats. Even though Nix has shown the ability to escape pressure, he has a 44.6% completion rate in those situations. On the other hand, New Orleans has one of the worst passing defenses in the league. The Saints give up 6.7 passing yards per attempt and have the fifth-lowest pressure rate in the league (29.5%). Edge: Broncos
When Saints run
The Saints have run for under 100 yards in three of their last four games. Meanwhile, running back Alvin Kamara has averaged 33 yards over the past two while limited by a hand injury. Broncos linebacker Justin Strnad has been one of the reasons the team has defended the run fairly well. Strnad’s run stop rate (20.0%) is the second-highest among any defender with at least 50 run defense snaps in 2024, according to Next Gen Stats. Edge: Broncos
When Saints pass
Denver’s ability to generate pressure will be the key. The Broncos have 49 pressures and a 45.4% pressure rate whenever they blitz. The Saints have allowed a pressure rate of 36.1% — 10th highest in the league. Defensive end Zach Allen has the third-most pressures in the league (31). Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Broncos kicker Wil Lutz has converted 92.9% of his field goal attempts and is 1 for 2 on attempts of 50-plus yards. Marvin Mims Jr. is second in yards per punt return (12.5). New Orleans’ special teams will take a hit with the absence of wide receiver Rashid Shaheed — one of two players in the league with a punt return touchdown. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Payton is 11-12 in 23 games as Denver’s head coach. Given Denver’s roster over the past two seasons, an argument can be made that the organization has played to expectations. But Payton has been known for being an offensive guru and that’s the one area this team has struggled with. The Broncos have one of the worst offenses in the league. And whenever it seems like they are making progress, they take two steps back. The Saints offense has shown improvement under offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, but they have struggled defensively during their four-game losing streak. Edge: Even
Tale of the tape
(Click here to see chart in mobile.)
|
Broncos |
Saints |
| Total offense |
278.2 (29th) |
319.8 (18th) |
| Rush offense |
107.3 (23rd) |
119.5 (13th) |
| Pass offense |
170.8 (27th) |
200.3 (21st) |
| Points per game |
18.7 (25th) |
27.8 (t-5th) |
| Total defense |
284.3 (4th) |
395.8 (32nd) |
| Run defense |
114.2 (14th) |
133.7 (20th) |
| Pass defense |
170.2 (5th) |
262.2 (29th) |
| Points allowed |
16.0 (4th) |
24.5 (23rd) |
*Stats from 2024 season.
By the numbers
152: Career wins for Sean Payton in New Orleans.
5: Passes defended by Broncos CB Riley Moss.
9: Sacks taken by Broncos QB Bo Nix.
22: Tackles for Broncos ILB Justin Strnad.
46.2: Receiving yards per game for Bronco WR Courtland Sutton.
Bet on it
Broncos punt on first drive (-120): Here is how Denver’s opening drives have played out in six games: field goal, punt, touchdown, punt, punt and interception. Against the Seahawks and Jets, the offense was gifted scoring position thanks to turnovers forced by the defense, but the Broncos failed to score a touchdown. The Broncos offense in the first half, especially in the opening quarter, has been lackluster. That makes it safe to bet that their first drive will result in a punt.
Devaughn Vele over 30.5 receiving yards: Denver’s rookie wide receiver has 12 catches for 117 yards on 14 targets. He was Denver’s top pass catcher last week, recording 78 yards on four receptions. In short playing time, Vele has shown he can make plays when afforded the opportunity. His production should increase on Thursday night.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Saints 20, Broncos 17
Denver is a road favorite. New Orleans is without its top two receiving targets and gave up 51 points Sunday to Tampa Bay. This is a game Denver should win and it wouldn’t be surprising if that’s the end result. It’s going to be a live wire crowd in Sean Payton’s return to the Superdome, though. He knows all about what that environment can do for the home team and on this night, that prevails.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 24, Saints 14
The Broncos should win this game, right? The Saints have lost four straight while the offense is missing a couple of key pieces. The Broncos should play up-tempo, score points early and let the defense carry them to victory. However, it’s prime time and we are uncertain how Bo Nix will meet the moment. Also, the Saints might have the upper hand since Sean Payton hasn’t changed anything from what he did in New Orleans. This game really could go either way, but I’m taking the Broncos.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 24, Saints 20
For the better part of eight years, the Broncos have been a get-right game for opponents. Just like with Sean Payton on the visiting sideline, the script has been flipped. The Saints defense can’t stop the run, can’t defend the pass and features a battery of injured players. Other than that, they are the ‘85 Bears. If the Broncos offense stinks Thursday, it is time to sound the alarm. Given Payton’s knowledge of Dennis Allen’s scheme, I expect the Broncos to start fast as they did in Tampa Bay, then tie a knot and hang on.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: Saints 20, Broncos 19
Thursday Night Football can get weird. Especially when it’s accompanied by the sort of drama attached to this one. By most accounts, the Broncos are the better, less injury-depleted team. Their rookie quarterback has seen more NFL defenses than the other guys’ rookie quarterback. And yet this one feels off. The loss of Pat Surtain II cannot be understated. The Saints and Spencer Rattler now have the entire field to work with. In the end, that’s enough to eke out an ugly one in the Big Easy.
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