Watching the Broncos without Tim Patrick is a little like watching Captain America fight bad guys without his shield. Oh, sure, Cap moves quicker. His payload’s lighter. But what happens once the bullets start flying?
“I feel like (Patrick has) gotten better and better,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters in Detroit recently when asked about the former Broncos wideout, an end-of-preseason Denver cut the Motor City Kitties quickly snapped up. “He brings a skill set in that room that we need, that’s different.”
Yeah, yeah. I know. The Broncos won’t miss a 30-year-old wideout with reconstructed knees and a low ceiling.
But the ceiling was never the point.
The floor was.
Sure catches. Sure first downs. Sure composure under fire. A professional who’s ready to go, every week, from the jump.
Yeah, but Patrick has only eight catches, you say.
True. But did you know seven of them have come in quarters 1-3, with an average of 15.9 yards per reception? Or that four of those took place in the first half for 78 yards — 42 of them coming on a diving grab at Dallas this past Sunday?
Devaughn Vele? 12 catches this season. Just five in quarters 1-3. Only three in the first half.
Troy Franklin? Seven catches this season. Just five in quarters 1-3, and five in the first half.
Marvin Mims? Three catches this season. Just two in quarters 1-3 and two in the first half.
The Broncos are third in the NFL in fourth-quarter scoring, with 8.7 per stanza. The problem is the 45 minutes prior — they’re averaging 10 points through quarters 1-3.
You don’t think Patrick would’ve helped those starts? Even a little?
Hey, going young is a choice, just like cutting Patrick and eating about $6 million in dead-cap money was a choice.
But the trouble with leaning on that many kids on offense at the same time is that everybody’s riding the learning curve — and nobody gets off that particular slide at the same time.
Yeah, but the Broncos need a wideout who can stretch the field, you say. More speed merchants.
Also true. But have you seen Bo Nix lately? The Broncos don’t have a QB1 who can stretch the field. Not consistently, at any rate.
Nix, 2024’s Tim Te-Bo, went into Week 5 tied for fourth among NFL signal-callers, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, in fewest average air yards (2.7) per pass attempt.
Wideouts on this team can’t get separation unless they’re seeing soft coverages. Which is usually happening because the opposition offense has those defenses 17-20 points ahead.
Yeah, but Patrick can’t beat most corners in a foot race, you say.
Sure. And yet five of Patrick’s eight catches this season (62.5%) have accounted for first downs.
Vele’s ratio? 12 grabs, four first downs: 33.3%.
Franklin? Seven receptions, three first downs: 42.9%.
Mims? Three catches all season. No first downs: 0.0%.
The Broncos are worst in the NFL this season in passing first downs per game, with 7.3. Cleveland’s next to last, at 7.5.
Denver averaged 9.1 passing first downs a year ago. Since 2006, according to TeamRankings.com, only one other team has finished a season with fewer than 7.4 passing first downs per game — the 2022 Bears (6.4), who had Justin Fields behind center tucking and running for 1,143 yards.
Side note: Nix is on a pace for about 510 yards with his legs, which would put him second on the franchise’s all-time list for QB rush yards in a season behind the aforementioned Tebow (660 in 2011). So there’s that.
Detroit Lions wide receiver Tim Patrick (17) reaches the ball for the goal line after a reception during an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Matt Patterson)
“(Patrick) has been a perfect fit,” Lions QB Jared Goff told WXYT-FM in Detroit last week. “He’s unselfish, he blocks, he cares, he’s a great teammate, he’s competitive, he’s got great hands and he’s trustworthy on his routes. As a QB, that’s all you can ask for …
“You think about a guy who hasn’t played real football for a couple of years, to get him back feeling good, getting into rhythm, I think it was just the beginning. The sky’s the limit for him and I can’t wait to keep growing with him.”
Yeah, but Patrick’s a 1-trick pony, you say.
But that pony as of Week 5, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, sported a catch-to-targets efficiency of 80%.
Vele? 85.7%.
Franklin? 46.7%.
Mims? 37.5%.
Meanwhile, Josh Reynolds is still nursing a fractured finger. Oh, for another veteran body in that receivers room. Especially on a short week.
“The other thing that stands out when you do some studies (is that) halftime leads on Thursday generally have a higher percentage of wins than on a normal Sunday,” Broncos coach Sean Payton noted on Monday. “Fatigue can obviously take place, so I think playing well early is important.”
Darn straight. You’ll say Patrick would be wasted in the Broncos’ offense. But a reliable target wouldn’t be wasted on Nix, who still needs more heroes by his side. And not just when he’s already down two scores.
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