It’s Election Day in Colorado and across the nation.
Colorado Sun staffers are fanning out across the state to talk to voters and candidates as the races for president, Congress, statehouse and ballot measures come to a close.
If you haven’t cast your ballot yet — or if you aren’t registered to vote — there’s still plenty of time to make sure your voice is heard. Check out our voter guide for more information on how to participate, as well as information on the candidates running in the state’s most competitive races and explainers on each of Colorado’s 14 statewide ballot measures this year.
We won’t post stories about races tonight until they have been called by our partners at The Associated Press, or if the outcome will be too close to call before tabulation ends today.
We do not write about early returns like other news outlets because they can be misleading. Our reporters will be tweeting analysis of the first results in the meantime, as well as posting updates from voting centers and campaign watch parties. And you can follow our Colorado Election 2024 page for up-to-date results from all of the state’s major races and ballot initiatives.
We’re expecting a lot of last-minute ballots this year, which will slow the counting process. While results will start being posted at about 7:30 p.m., it may be quite awhile before races are called.
Check this live blog regularly to get the latest election results and news.
Why the race in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District is so close
3:00 a.m. MST on Nov. 4, 2024
The race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo and Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District remains statistically tied, according to a recent poll.
The Emerson College/The Hill poll of 485 likely voters Oct. 24-26 showed that Caraveo had 48% of the vote to 46% for Evans, with 7% undecided. That may appear to show a lead for Caraveo, but when you factor in the survey’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error, the contest is a dead heat.
A race is considered a statistical tie when neither candidate leads by more than a poll’s margin of error. The margin of error in the Emerson College poll means that Caraveo’s lead could be larger or that Evans could even have a narrow advantage.
The poll’s crosstabs provide some indication of why the race is so close:
Keep in mind that the margin of error for some of these may be higher because they are smaller sample sizes.
- Only 3% of the voters who cast their ballots for Caraveo in 2022 said they would be backing Evans this time around, while 95% said they would vote for her again this year. The rest were undecided. Meanwhile, 5.5% of those who voted for Republican state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer in 2022 said they would vote for Caraveo this time, while 94% said they were backing Evans and the rest were undecided.
- Of the voters who didn’t cast a ballot in the 8th District in 2022, 36% said they were voting for Evans this year, while 41% said they were voting for Caraveo. The rest were undecided.
- The presidential race in the 8th District is also statistically tied, according to the poll, with 48.5% of survey participants saying they are backing Kamala Harris, while 48% said they are backing Donald Trump. Three percent said they would be voting for someone else while 1% said they were undecided.
- Some 94% of 8th District voters who said they are backing Harris this year said they would also be supporting Caraveo, with 5% undecided. Meanwhile, 92% of the voters backing Trump this year said they were also supporting Evans, with 8% undecided in the 8th District race.
- There was only one Harris voter in the 8th District who said they were planning to back Evans, while Trump voters said they planned to back Caraveo.
- About 48% of the unaffiliated or third-party voters who participated in the poll said they’ll be backing Caraveo, while 46% said they’ll be supporting Evans. Seven percent were undecided.
- The number of decided voters polled by Emerson College decreased to 7% from 12% from an earlier survey in the district conducted by the pollster.
The bottom line: This race remained an absolute toss-up heading into Election Day. Don’t be surprised if it takes several days before a winner is known. Also, beware of incorrect interpretations of this poll. It would be statistically incorrect to say the survey shows that Caraveo has a lead.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election prognosticator, last week called Caraveo one of the 10 most vulnerable House incumbents this year.
This item first appeared in The Unaffiliated newsletter on Friday.
— Jesse Paul, political reporter & editor
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 12 percentage points in Colorado, poll shows
3:00 a.m. MST on Nov. 4, 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris heads into Election Day with a big polling lead over former President Donald Trump in Colorado.
A survey of 600 likely voters by Keating Research found that 53% said they had either voted for or planned to vote for Harris, compared with 41% for Trump. That’s a 12-point gap. Two percent of those polled said they planned to vote for someone else, while 5% said they remain undecided in the race.
“Harris’ strong position heading into the final weekend of voting is due to a commanding 18- point lead with unaffiliated voters (53% Harris, 35% Trump) and a decisive 29-point lead with women (61% Harris, 32% Trump),” the Democratic firm wrote in a polling memo.
The poll was conducted via live telephone interviews and through text messages from Oct. 28 to Oct. 30. It had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
The pollster also asked participants about Amendment 79, which would preserve unfettered abortion access in the Colorado Constitution. Sixty percent said they have or planned to vote yes on the measure, while 32% said they planned to vote no. The initiative needs 55% support to pass because it would amend the constitution. The margin of error could mean the poll reflects that as little as 56% of the electorate really supports the measure.
“Amendments are very hard to pass,” said Chris Keating, the principal at Keating Research, “but I think this one is in as good a shape as you could expect on any amendment.”
Proposition JJ, which would let Colorado keep all of the sports betting tax revenue it collects, is also poised to pass. Sixty-eight percent of those polled said they planned to vote for it, while 24% said they planned to vote no. The measure needs a simple majority to pass.
This item first appeared in The Unaffiliated newsletter on Friday.
— Jesse Paul, political reporter & editor
CREDIT
Reporting: Jesse Paul
Editing: Larry Ryckman
Link to original article