Renck vs. Keeler: Can Nuggets win Timberwolves series without Jamal Murray in “Playoff Jamal” mode?

Monday, May. 06, 2024

Troy Renck: It was difficult to reconcile what unfolded on Saturday night. The Nuggets lost a home playoff game and the first game of a series — something that never happened during their title run a year ago. They continue to trail early while counting on sprinkling pixie dust late. The problem is the man with the magic wand has an achy left calf. Jamal Murray is not himself. His lack of practice leading up to this series showed. He needed WD-40 for his rust, and unlike the Lakers, the Timberwolves are not soft. Murray went scoreless in the first half and finished with 17 points. His minus-22 rating represented his worst playoff game since 2018. So, I ask: Can the Nuggets win this series without Playoff or Bubble Jamal?

Sean Keeler: Nope. Wait. Let me rephrase that. Heck, no. This past Lakers series skewed the numbers a little, but my favorite Nuggets postseason indicator stat remains undefeated: When The Blue Arrow scores 20 or more in a playoff game, Denver’s 29-9 — winning a dynasty-esque 76.3% of those games. When it’s 19 or fewer, the Nuggets are 7-14 (33.3%). When it’s 15 points or fewer, they’re 3-6 (33.3%). It’s about more than one guy, but this one guy makes an insane difference on this stage. They won’t dance to a conference finals, or NBA Finals, without Murray regaining form.

Renck: All signs scream the Nuggets are in trouble. Nikola Jokic lost his efficiency in Game 1, bothered by the height and bulk of the Timberwolves’ Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. Jokic has 14 turnovers in his past two playoff games. That won’t work. The key to Murray playing better is the team around him gaining its footing. Better spacing and less confusion on offense are required. As Jokic finds his way, and he will, Murray will follow suit. Murray will be limited defensively in this series but there’s no reason to think he can’t shoot 50% from 3 on at least 10 attempts.

Keeler: Darn straight, and he’s pulled off at least five makes on 10 or more 3-pointers five different times in the postseason since 2019. The Nuggs’ record in those games? A sterling 4-1, including a Game 2 win over Minnesota (the Arrow went 6 for 10, finishing with 40 points) in the first round a year ago. The Joker and Murray are so symbiotic in what they do, that messing with one invariably screws up the other.

Renck: The Nuggets appear poised to let Anthony Edwards get his. He is averaging 33.5 points per game in the playoffs. And while history says Murray is the best postseason closer since Mariano Rivera, Edwards is quietly taking over that role. In these playoffs entering Monday night, Edwards leads in fourth-quarter scoring (10.8), field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and is 14 for 14 from the free-throw line. So what needs to happen? The Nuggets, starting with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, must keep Edwards to 33, while Murray outscores him in the fourth quarter befitting his playoff reputation.

Keeler: What Murray is to this postseason offense, Caldwell-Pope is to the defense, so a gimpy KCP only complicates matters. (More Peyton Watson trying to exterminate the Ant-Man couldn’t hurt, could it?) Wacky stat: Game 1 was the first Nuggets postseason tilt out of the last nine in which the Arrow reached double digits in points in the fourth quarter and Denver lost. Managing a bad calf is tricky, as the Nuggs are 5-10 since ’18 in postseason games in which Murray doesn’t play at all. Late Jamal isn’t Playoff ‘Mal or Bubble ‘Mal. But it’s better than No ‘Mal at all.

Link to original article